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TRUMP NEEDS A SCAPEGOAT — Another brutal day on Wall Street and President Trump once again decided to blame Fed Chair Jay Powell rather than face the reality that the U. China looms and the deficit spikes higher with demand for U. The Fed is doing exactly what it’s supposed to at a time of very low unemployment and rising wages. And every time Trump bashes the central bank he makes it LESS likely that the Fed will look at sluggish growth numbers and sagging stocks and decides to slow down its pace of rate hikes. The central bank cannot allow itself to be viewed as caving to Trump or it will erode its independence and lose credibility with markets. Fed pausing in December or reducing the number of hikes expected next year.
For the moment he needs to blame the fact that markets are now down for the year or someone other than himself. And that person is Jay Powell. I’d like to see the Fed with a lower interest rate. I think the rate’s too high. Trump told reporters outside the White House.
I think your tech stocks have some problems. Primarily, PANIC — a capitulation and widespread belief that a recession is imminent and the bull is over — that may represent one last great buying opportunity if we do not have a recession. Washout comes at any time in panic selling. This is what one gets from a Trade War. Now up to POTUS to make a truce in Buenos Aires. Life would be better for equity investors if the transition from quantitative easing and ultra-low interest rates was unfolding against a backdrop of solid economic growth.
Instead, the global economy is losing momentum and the divergence between advanced economies is growing. As a result, financial market choppiness has been ruling the day and unsettling investors. That leaves portfolios more vulnerable to technical dislocations and behavioural biases. Having been conditioned over the past decade to expect central banks to repress financial volatility and flinch at the first sign of market vulnerabilities, traders and investors are only slowly coming to terms with the less pleasant reality of a world of tighter liquidity. If coming last in a popularity contest stings, consider how it feels to come first in an unpopularity contest. In Tuesday’s mass defriending of stocks, the energy sector managed to stand out in the worst possible way. P 1500 exploration and production index was at its highest level in more than three years.
Since then, they’re down 28 percent and 20 percent respectively. WHAT IS THE FED TO DO? Expectations for a March rate hike have dipped since Fed Vice-Chair Clarida’s CNBC interview last Friday. The renewed drop in stock prices hasn’t helped, either. But we aren’t at all sure that Mr. Clarida wanted his words to be interpreted as a dovish signal. And this year, the numbers have been strong enough for the Fed—probably—to hike four times, one more than expected at the start of the year.
In other words, numbers which were soft enough to stay the Fed’s hand in 2016, say, would not be enough now to do the same, given that the unemployment rate is now 3. SOFT GLOBAL OUTLOOK — From the OECD’s latest economic outlook out at 5:00 a. The global economy is navigating rough seas. Global GDP growth is strong but has peaked. In many countries unemployment is well below pre-crisis levels, labour shortages are biting and inflation remains tepid. Yet, global trade and investment have been slowing on the back of increases in bilateral tariffs while many emerging market economies are experiencing capital outflows and a weakening of their currencies.
The global economy looks set for a soft landing, with global GDP growth projected to slow from 3. 7 percent in 2018 to 3. However, downside risks abound and policy makers will have to steer their economies carefully towards sustainable, albeit slower, GDP growth. Engineering soft landings has always been a delicate exercise and is especially challenging today. 7 percent pace in 2019 and 2. 1 percent in 2020, hardly numbers Trump would celebrate. A LEAD FOR THE AGES — Via the NYT’s Mark Lander: “President Trump defied the nation’s intelligence agencies and a growing body of evidence on Tuesday to declare his unswerving loyalty to Saudi Arabia, asserting that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s culpability for the killing of Jamal Khashoggi might never be known.
GOOD WEDNESDAY MORNING — Wishing a blessed and peaceful Thanksgiving to all. Don’t talk politics around the table. 62 billion in the third quarter, as lenders reap the benefits of lower taxes and looser regulations. Third quarter bank profits were up 29. 3 percent from the same period last year, according to new data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The question is: What can Washington do to foster more opportunity and prosperity in struggling communities across the country? POLITICO convened a bipartisan group of 14 business leaders, thinkers and policymakers to explore the problem and identify solutions that have a realistic path forward with political leaders of both parties.