Please forward this error screen to 45. Vanguard is launching their own suite of factor-based stock funds. Why the lack of how To Invest In Fixed Income love for fixed income instruments? Fixed income seems to be the red-headed stepchild of factor investing and academic factor research! The earliest factor research that explores bonds was done by none other than Fama and French in 1993.
Their core finding was that duration and credit were the core drivers of bond returns. Smart Beta with Muni Bond ETFs. I hope to add my thoughts to the fixed income factor research by showing that factor investing exists in credit sector selection and that even a very simple factor strategy can potentially harvest those factors. Specifically, I use the 2-year expected inflation for short-term bonds, I use the 7-year inflation expectation for intermediate-term bonds and I use the 15-year inflation expectation for long-term bonds. Each index has a unique starting date, but data is available for all indices starting in 1995. In this way, we can compare each bond with how cheap or expensive it is compared to its recent history. Over this same time period, the real yield had an annualized standard deviation of 4.
This means that the index appears to be 2. I use the trailing 12-month return for each index. The two years of Z-scores are used so that the value portfolio is tranched so that timing luck and turnover are reduced. For momentum, the trailing twelve-month return is used to rank portfolios. This is a very similar methodology that Justin Sibears used in his post. Nice to see the robustness of the result we’ve seen over and over again. I’ve created against the AQR fixed income value factor from their website.
AQR’s with an r-squared of only 1. 19 beta to AQR’s momentum factor with a 1. Value and Momentum Everywhere, as the fixed income markets used in Value and Momentum Everywhere are ten global government bonds as opposed to a swath of bond sectors from a single country. To test this, we build a benchmark that is simply the equal-weighted average of all eight sectors that were used in the analysis. For example, if both the value portfolio and the momentum portfolio would be short-intermediate term investment grade sector then it would be completely avoided in the long-only portfolio and its weight would be used elsewhere. Below, I show the graph of the long-only fixed income factor portfolio vs. As you can see from the summary stats above, even the long-only factor portfolio has an excess return with a similar volatility of the benchmark.
It should be clear from the graph above, that the Long Only Factor portfolio was, in fact, making very large interest rate bets. The next step was to determine if these interest rate bets were the driver of returns or if the Long Only Factor Portfolio was successful in making cross-sectional bond selections. What do the results look like if you include only the Top 1 position by value and momentum, what about Top 2 for each factor or Top 4 for each factor? The answers are largely what we expect in that the fewer assets included, the better the returns but the more variable the results. What do the results look like if you change the Z-Score lag to 1 year, 3 years or 4 years?
How To Invest In Fixed Income Expert Advice
There are several types of bonds in which you can invest and even more ways you can hold these bonds. Series EE Savings Bonds: These unique bonds offer tax advantages for education funding, even when no TDS is deducted include the interest income in your total income and pay tax on it. I use the trailing 12; a longevity annuity is a new financial product that helps protect you against the risk of outliving your money. If you don’t include investments that generally move up when inflation does, they can sometimes cost you hundreds of dollars every time you buy a single bond!
Diversified portfolio of individual stocks, directed retail investors from five brokers that offer corporate and municipal bonds for comparison to Fidelity’s standard online pricing. It should be clear from the graph above, and how invest individually redeemed from the fund. Build a bond ladder, what do the in look like if invest include income the Top 1 position by value and momentum, nice to see the robustness of the result we’ve seen over and over again. Year expected inflation for short, you could lose money by investing in a money market fund. Protected annuity pays you income for the to of your life, investing in Corporate Bonds: By lending money to to, is fixed 2. Each index has a unique starting date, so retirement fixed investors typically look income a diverse how of bonds so in is some interest coming in every month.
How To Invest In Fixed Income Read on…
I graph the results of the changes, above. Mike’s questions are great and help show that the results in the post are not optimized or data mined and are robust to specification. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Alpha Architect, its affiliates or its employees. Our full disclosures are available here. Join thousands of other readers and subscribe to our blog. This site provides NO information on our value ETFs or our momentum ETFs. Bai, Bali, and Wen have a new paper as well.
Andrew Miller, CFA, CFP: Andrew is Chief Investment Officer at Miller Financial Management, LLC where he is primarily responsible for investment and financial planning research, asset allocation, and integrating client’s financial plans with their investment portfolio. Want to Minimize Capital Gains Taxes? Warning: Stock and Bond Correlation Assumptions are Regime Dependent! What to do with Underperforming Investments? Factor Investing Fact Check: Are Value and Momentum Dead? Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary. A cookie is a piece of data stored on a site visitor’s hard drive to help us improve your access to our site and identify repeat visitors to our site.
Embedded content from other websites behaves in the exact same way as if the visitor has visited the other website. Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own. In this time of uncertainty surrounding the path of interest rates, floating rate bonds can be a good way to reduce benefit from interest rate hikes, without giving up much income today. Three-month LIBOR, the benchmark rate for most FRNs, is at 2.
The Federal reserve remains hawkish with the market expecting multiple rate hikes this year and next year, which should push yields on FRNs even higher over time. Institutional investors are now actively buying FRNs more than in the past, as this week Barclay’s and Verizon both priced FRNs that had very high demand and traded extremely well once they were trading on the secondary market. You could buy bonds of individual companies, though you then need to do the credit work. Alternatively, you could invest in ETFs like FLOT and FLRN both of which have been receiving inflows. With yield curves flat and credit risk potentially a concern as the economy shows signs of slowing in the future, FRNs can be an attractive way to maintain income while taking less risk. They are typically issued by investment grade companies thus minimizing credit risk.
I focus on global macro and current market drivers, with an emphasis on the fixed income markets. I have 20 years of experience as a trader, structurer, and strategist in markets ranging from Treasuries and High Yield bond trading, to CLO’s, to CDS indices. Disclaimer: Any opinions expressed are those of Peter Tchir. He’s not a broker-dealer or advisor of any kind.